Research

Working papers

Global Banking Default Cycles: Cross-Country Exposure and Business Cycle Implications

Cross-Border Direct Bank Exposures in Asian Economies: A Counterparty Risk Ranking Assessment

with Jorge Antonio Chan-Lau and Min Wei

Current version: AMRO Working Paper No.25-11 November 2025

Forecasting Federal Funds Rates with AI: LSTM, GRU, and Large Language Model Approaches

with Jorge Antonio Chan-Lau and Toàn Long Quách

Current version: AMRO Working Paper No.25-10 September 2025;

Debt Sustainability in Japan: Macroeconomic and Asset Pricing Perspectives

with Jorge Antonio Chan-Lau

Current version: AMRO Working Paper No.25-05 April 2025;

Deep Reinforcement Learning and Macroeconomic Modelling (PhD Thesis)

Current version: 2024

Chapter 2 was circulated under the name "Deep Reinforcement Learning: Emerging Trends in Macroeconomics and Future Prospects" as IMF Working Paper No. 2022/259.
Chapter 3 was circulated under the name "Learning from Zero: How to Make Consumption-Saving Decisions in a Stochastic Environment with an AI Algorithm" as CESifo Working Paper No. 9255.
Chapter 4 was circulated under the name "Can an AI agent hit a moving target?".

Population Aging in ASEAN+3: But is 60 the New 40?

with Hongyan Zhao

Current version: AMRO Working Paper No. WP24-08 July 2024;

AI and Macroeconomics Modelling: Deep Reinforcement Learning in an RBC Model

with Tohid Atashbar

Current version: IMF Working Paper No. 2023/040 February 2023

Deep Reinforcement Learning: Emerging Trends in Macroeconomics and Future Prospects

with Tohid Atashbar

Current version: IMF Working Paper No. 2022/259 December 2022

Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Monetary Model

with Mingli Chen, Andreas Joseph, Michael Kumhof, Xinlei Pan, and Xuan Zhou.

Rebuilding Macroeconomics Working Paper Series No.58 April 2021